Sunday, June 20, 2010

Probability

We teach statistics every year as part of the curriculum. As part of what we teach, we teach that theoretically if you have 4 choices, the probability is 25% that you would select a specific choice. But you also teach that it is POSSIBLE to select the same marble, sock, whatever 4 times in a row. Or 10 times in a row. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it is possible.

So, we’re in a department meeting and two teachers start complaining about students who say they Christmas-treed the state test and got a passing score of 70. The teachers kept saying “There were 4 answers [A, B, C, D], they should have a 25% not a 70%.”

They ignore:
1) 70 is the inflated and is probably a 40 (I forget what the cut score is, but it isn’t 70).
2) 40% is POSSIBLE
3) The kid probably lied that he didn’t read the problems because he wanted to build an escape plan (I didn’t pass because I Christmas-treed it. Never read the test.)

So why do the teachers spend time complaining about this? Heck,, why am I spending time complaining about THEM? I guess I just expect them to have thought this through before wasting my time.

1 comment:

Mrs. Chili said...

Sometimes, you just gotta get that shit off your chest, Ricochet; I didn't feel like I wasted my time reading it...

I am NOT good with numbers (or the logic that goes with them). In fact, Mr. Chili blew my mind about 18 years ago when he explained to me that if one starts a certain distance from an object - say, a wall - and moves HALF the distance to that object every time, one will NEVER reach the object. I'm STILL trying to work that out. Also? Getting all the answers on a test WRONG is JUST as unlikely as getting them all RIGHT, and a kid who gets a flat zero on a test should be given the same credit as a kid who gets a straight 100.

Ooof.