Probability

We teach statistics every year as part of the curriculum. As part of what we teach, we teach that theoretically if you have 4 choices, the probability is 25% that you would select a specific choice. But you also teach that it is POSSIBLE to select the same marble, sock, whatever 4 times in a row. Or 10 times in a row. I wouldn’t bet on it, but it is possible.

So, we’re in a department meeting and two teachers start complaining about students who say they Christmas-treed the state test and got a passing score of 70. The teachers kept saying “There were 4 answers [A, B, C, D], they should have a 25% not a 70%.”

They ignore:
1) 70 is the inflated and is probably a 40 (I forget what the cut score is, but it isn’t 70).
2) 40% is POSSIBLE
3) The kid probably lied that he didn’t read the problems because he wanted to build an escape plan (I didn’t pass because I Christmas-treed it. Never read the test.)

So why do the teachers spend time complaining about this? Heck,, why am I spending time complaining about THEM? I guess I just expect them to have thought this through before wasting my time.